Between 2022 and 2025 the world price of cocoa more than tripled. People weren't suddenly eating more chocolate. The trees got sick, the weather went wrong, and half the world's supply comes from two neighbouring countries.
3.3×
2025 average cocoa price, $7,788/t, vs 2022's $2,369/t IMF global cocoa price, annual average · via FRED
01 · The price scale
Twenty-five years of cocoa on one strip
For two decades a tonne of beans sat between $1,500 and $3,100. Then it jumped right off that range.
$9042000
$2,3692022
$3,1312010
$3,2582023
$7,3912024
$7,7882025
$800 / tcheap beansdear beans$8,000 / t
Annual average prices, US$ per tonne. Light = cheap, dark = dear. Source: IMF via FRED.
02 · The trend
A flat line, then a cliff the other way
The 2024 average was more than double the previous record set in 2010, and 2025 went higher still.
Annual averages. Prices then fell fast: futures traded near $2,846/t in March 2026 and around $5,100/t by Oct 1, 2026 (Trading Economics, daily futures, not comparable to annual averages).
03 · Where it grows
Half the world's cocoa, two countries
Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana grew about half of 2023/24's crop, so trouble on those farms moves the global price.
Cocoa output 2023/24 · million tonnes
Côte d’Ivoire
1.67 Mt38%
Ghana
0.53 Mt12%
Everyone else
2.18 Mt50%
ICCO. Shares calculated against 4.38 Mt world output.
04 · The shortfall
The biggest hole in the market in decades
One bad season cut world output by 13%. Even after it recovered, the next season left only a sliver of surplus.
World cocoa production by season · Mt
2022/23
5.04 Mtderived
2023/24
4.38 Mt−13.1%
2024/25
4.73 Mt+8.5%
ICCO. 2022/23 derived from the 2023/24 figure and its −13.1% change.
478k t
Global deficit, 2023/24: demand outran supply
ICCO · AUG 2024
27.0%
Stocks-to-grindings ratio: a 46-year low
ICCO · 2024
37k t
The 2024/25 surplus: under 1% of grindings
ICCO · 2026
−3.3%
Change in world grindings, 2024/25, as high prices cut demand
ICCO · 2026
05 · The disease
A virus spreading through Ghana's farms
Mealybugs spread cocoa swollen shoot virus, and there is no cure: infected trees have to be cut down. In Ghana's biggest growing region, infection nearly doubled in four years.
Share of cocoa area infected
Western North · 2020
42%
Western North · 2024
81%
All Ghana · 2026
25.7%
500,000 ha
Ghanaian cocoa land infected, about a quarter of its 1.94 million hectares
COCOBOD · APR 2026
Survey rounds differ in method and coverage, so regional and national rates aren't directly comparable.
06 · Who gets paid
The farmer's sliver of a chocolate bar
Most of what you pay for a bar never reaches the person who grew the beans, and much of the farm work is done by children.
6.6%farmer
~23%traders, grinders, transport, tax*
~70%brands + retailers
6.6%
Farmer's share of a chocolate bar's retail price
COCOA BAROMETER
~70%
Share taken by chocolate brands and retailers
FAO VALUE-CHAIN STUDY · 2018/2020 DATA
1.56 M
Children in cocoa child labour in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, 2018/19
NORC / US DOL · 2020
*Middle slice is a residual from two different studies. Illustrative.
What you can do · why it matters
Price swings fall hardest on the people at the start of the chain
State-set farmgate prices in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana trailed the world price through the boom, and old, diseased trees take years to replace.
Look past the logo
Pick bars that publish what they pay farmers or show a living-income reference price. Certification by itself doesn't guarantee either.
Expect smaller bars
Shrinkflation and recipes with less cocoa trace back to this boom. Read the cocoa percentage and the net weight.
Follow the trees
Replanting programmes and disease-resistant varieties will decide future supply more than any one season's weather.
Daily Dose · The Bitter Boomdailydoseinfo.com · No. 104 · Oct 30, 2026