A population replaces itself at about 2.1 children per woman. More than half the world's countries now sit below that line, and the global average is closing in on it.
Total fertility rate: the average number of children a woman would have at today's rates. Darker means more births.
Latest national figures: S.Korea 2023 (Statistics Korea); Japan 2023 (MHLW); Italy 2023 (ISTAT); US 2023 (CDC/NCHS); France 2023 (INSEE); India 2019–21 (NFHS-5); China 2023 & World 2024 (UN WPP 2024). Niger shown as ≈6: UN/World Bank estimates range ~5.9–6.1.
The world averaged nearly five children per woman in 1950. It is about 2.25 today and is forecast to keep falling.
World 1950 & 2050/2100 forecasts: GBD 2021 Fertility Collaborators, The Lancet 2024 (reference scenario, modeled). 1990 & 2024: UN WPP 2024. Korea: Statistics Korea.
Europe, the Americas and Asia are now at or below about two children per woman. Africa, at nearly four, is where most future births will happen.
Schematic shapes, not survey-accurate. Regional shading after UN WPP 2024 via Our World in Data.
Dots mark the countries on the spectrum above. Europe is shaded lighter as its large economies all sit well below 2.
Share of 204 countries and territories with fertility above 2.1. The forecasts are modeled, but the direction is consistent across every major projection.
Fewer births today mean fewer workers and parents tomorrow, and the change has already arrived in some places.
Babies born in South Korea in 2023, against 1,006,645 in 1970. Fewer than a quarter as many.
People worldwide who already live in a country whose population has passed its peak.
The year people aged 65+ are projected to outnumber children under 18 worldwide.
Tokyo's fertility rate in 2023, the first time a Japanese prefecture fell below 1.
Projected peak world population, in the mid-2080s, before a slow decline.
Births in Japan in 2023, an eighth straight annual record low.
Low fertility mostly reflects good things: more education for women, less child mortality, more choice. The challenge is the age structure it leaves behind, with pensions, care work and labour markets built for a younger world.
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