Air conditioning is the most effective heat-protection technology ever built — and the most
unequally distributed. Almost everyone who already has it lives where it is least needed. Nearly everyone
who needs it most does not have it. Here is the gap, in numbers, and what closing it would cost.
8%
Share of the 2.8 billion people living in the hottest parts of the world
who own an air conditioner. In the United States and Japan, the figure is about 90%.
IEA, The Future of Cooling, 2018
The other side of the ledger
2,900 TWh
Electricity burned worldwide on space cooling in 2024 — roughly a tenth of all the electricity
humanity uses, and the fastest-growing energy demand in buildings.
IEA, 2025
01 · Access
Where the machines are
Household air-conditioner ownership tracks income far more tightly than it tracks heat.
The hottest inhabited regions on Earth — the Sahel, South Asia, Southeast Asia — sit at the pale end of
this scale.
Schematic map — shapes are simplified, not survey-accurate. Ownership figures: IEA,
The Future of Cooling (2018); Gulf states figure is IEA's "close to 100% in a few Middle Eastern
countries." Values marked "under" are IEA ceilings, not point estimates.Share of households with at least one air conditioner. Source: IEA, The Future of Cooling
(2018). "The hottest places" = IEA's estimate for the 2.8 billion people living in the world's
highest cooling-degree-day regions.
02 · Stock
1.6 billion boxes, and counting
At the end of 2016 more than half the world's air conditioners sat in just two countries.
On the IEA's baseline path the global stock reaches 5.6 billion by 2050 — an average of ten new units
sold every second for three decades.
Installed air-conditioner stock, end 2016. Source: IEA (2018). India's stock has grown
sharply since; this is the last consistent country-level snapshot.
Global stock, 2016 → 2050
1.6bn → 5.6bn
Ten new air conditioners sold every second, on average, for thirty years. Household ownership
worldwide climbs from just over 30% to almost two-thirds.
IEA Baseline Scenario, 2018 — projection
Annual sales
135 million / yr
Units sold in 2016 — more than triple the 1990 figure. Installed cooling capacity went from
4,000 GW in 1990 to 11,675 GW in 2016.
IEA, 2018
03 · Load
The fastest-growing thing in buildings
Energy used for space cooling more than tripled between 1990 and 2016, and has kept
climbing. Where the line goes next depends almost entirely on how efficient the machines are.
World electricity demand for space cooling. Measured: ~600 TWh in 1990 (derived from the IEA's
"more than tripled" statement), 2,020 TWh in 2016, more than 2,900 TWh in 2024. Projected: 4,500 TWh by 2035
under current policies; 6,200 TWh in 2050 (IEA Baseline Scenario) versus 3,400 TWh (IEA Efficient Cooling
Scenario). The two 2050 figures are modelled scenarios, not forecasts.
14%
Share of global peak electricity demand attributable to space cooling, averaged across
countries (2016). In parts of the US and the Middle East it exceeds 70% of peak residential
demand on the hottest days.
10 → 45%
India's projected jump in the share of peak electricity load driven by cooling,
2016 to 2050 — the steepest of any major economy. Modelled.
68×
Growth in China's space-cooling energy use, from 6.6 TWh in 1990 to 450 TWh in 2016.
India's rose fifteenfold over the same period.
04 · Spectrum
Fifty-four to one
Electricity used per person, per year, to stay cool. An average American consumes about
fifty-four times as much as an average African — while living, on average, somewhere considerably cooler.
35Africa
70India
~275World avg
800+Japan · Korea
1,880United States
Kilowatt-hours per person per year for space cooling, 2016. Ticks are
placed on a logarithmic scale. Africa, India, Japan/Korea and US figures: IEA (2018). The world average is
derived (2,020 TWh ÷ ~7.4 bn people) and is illustrative. Even Europe — with a mild climate — uses
more electricity per person for cooling than Africa, Brazil or Indonesia use for everything in buildings.
Efficiency gap
4.2
Average seasonal efficiency ratio (SEER) of air conditioners sold worldwide in 2016. The best
units on the market are roughly twice as efficient — and up to five times, at the extreme.
IEA, 2018
Saudi Arabia
70%
Share of the country's total electricity demand that goes to air conditioning, with summer demand
twice the winter level.
Demirbas, Hashem & Bakhsh (2017), via IEA
India, 2024
+7 GW / °C
Additional peak electricity demand associated with each 1 °C rise in outdoor temperature —
roughly the output of seven large power stations.
IEA, 2025
05 · Stakes
What the gap costs
Cooling is not a luxury question. It is the difference between a heatwave being uncomfortable
and a heatwave being lethal — and, simultaneously, one of the fastest-growing sources of the emissions
making heatwaves worse.
Lives — the cost of no cooling
546,000
Average annual heat-related deaths worldwide, 2012–2021 — a 63% rise on the 1990s. Deaths
among people over 65 are up 85%.
Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change, 2025
Lives — the value of cooling
−75%
Fall in the mortality impact of days above 80 °F in the United States over the twentieth century.
The spread of residential air conditioning explains essentially the entire decline.
Barreca et al., Journal of Political Economy, 2016
People at risk today
1.12bn
Rural and urban poor across 77 countries at high risk from lack of access to cooling.
Another 2.9 billion are at medium risk.
SEforALL, Chilling Prospects, 2023
7%
Share of global greenhouse-gas emissions already attributable to cooling. On current
trends that reaches 6.1 Gt CO₂e — over a tenth of world emissions — by 2050.
$2.9tn
Cumulative global savings to 2050 in the IEA's Efficient Cooling Scenario, from
avoided generating capacity, fuel and operating costs. Modelled.
1,300 GW
Power-generation capacity the world would not have to build if air conditioners
got efficient — about all the coal capacity in China and India today.
Why it matters
The cheapest air conditioner is the one you never switch on
The cold divide closes one of two ways. Either five billion new machines arrive as cheap, inefficient
boxes running on fossil grids — locking in a decade of emissions each, and pushing peak demand past what
networks can carry — or the same comfort arrives with half the electricity. The technology to do the
second already exists and is already for sale; it is simply not what most people buy.
Buy the labelEfficiency ratings on the same shelf differ by a factor of two or more. The
premium is usually repaid in electricity within a few cooling seasons.
Shade firstPassive measures — shading, reflective roofs, ventilation, insulation — could cut
2050 cooling capacity needs by 24% and avoid up to US$3 trillion in equipment.
Set it higherEvery degree of setpoint costs real energy. In hot regions, cooling is already
the single biggest reason grids strain at peak.
Sources & notes
International Energy Agency, The Future of Cooling: Opportunities for Energy-Efficient Air
Conditioning (2018) — 8% AC ownership among 2.8 bn people in the hottest regions; ~90% in the US
and Japan; 4% India, ~60% China, under 10% Europe, under 5% Africa, close to 100% in some Gulf states;
1.6 bn units end-2016 (China 570M, US 375M, Japan 150M, EU ~100M, Korea 60M, Middle East ~50M, Brazil
and India ~30M each); 135 million units sold in 2016; 4,000 GW → 11,675 GW capacity 1990–2016;
2,020 TWh in 2016; ~14% of global peak demand; >70% of peak residential demand on hot days in parts
of the US and Middle East; China 6.6 → 450 TWh (1990–2016); per-capita cooling electricity of 35 kWh
(Africa), 70 kWh (India), 800+ kWh (Japan, Korea), 1,880 kWh (US); average SEER 4.2; 6,200 TWh and
5.6 bn units in the Baseline Scenario for 2050; 3,400 TWh, US$2.9 trillion of savings and 1,300 GW of
avoided capacity in the Efficient Cooling Scenario; India's cooling share of peak load rising from
10% to 45%.
International Energy Agency, Staying Cool Without Overheating the Energy System (2025) —
more than 2,900 TWh of electricity for space cooling in 2024, rising to more than 4,500 TWh by 2035 on
current policy settings; +7 GW of Indian peak demand per 1 °C in 2024.
Sustainable Energy for All, Chilling Prospects: Global Access to Cooling Gaps (2023) —
1.12 billion people at high risk across 77 countries; 2.90 billion at medium risk; cooling responsible
for more than 7% of global emissions.
UN Environment Programme / Cool Coalition, Global Cooling Watch 2023: Keeping It Chill —
cooling emissions reaching 6.1 Gt CO₂e by 2050 without intervention, over 10% of global emissions;
passive cooling able to cut 2050 cooling capacity needs by 24% and avoid up to US$3 trillion in
equipment spending.
Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change (2025), as reported by the World Health Organization —
546,000 average annual heat-related deaths in 2012–2021, a 63% increase on the 1990s; an 85% increase
among adults over 65.
A. Barreca, K. Clay, O. Deschênes, M. Greenstone & J. S. Shapiro, "Adapting to Climate Change:
The Remarkable Decline in the US Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the Twentieth Century,"
Journal of Political Economy 124(1), 2016 — the mortality effect of days above 80 °F fell by
about 75%, with the diffusion of residential air conditioning explaining essentially the entire decline.
A. Demirbas, A. Hashem & A. Bakhsh (2017), cited in IEA (2018) — air conditioning at roughly 70%
of Saudi Arabia's total electricity demand.
Notes on figures. The 1990 cooling-demand value (~600 TWh) is derived from the IEA's
statement that demand "more than tripled" to 2,020 TWh by 2016, and is shown as an approximation. The world
average of ~275 kWh per person is derived (2,020 TWh ÷ ~7.4 bn people, 2016) and is illustrative only.
All 2035 and 2050 values are modelled scenarios published by the IEA and UNEP, not forecasts;
ownership values reported by the IEA as "under X%" are ceilings rather than point estimates. Country stock
figures are end-2016, the most recent consistent country-level series; India in particular has grown
substantially since. The map is schematic and its coastlines are hand-simplified.